offshore RMB fluctuates & ldquo; New Year & rdquo;, It hit a new high of more than two and a half years on New Year's Eve

in 2020, the onshore RMB appreciated by nearly 7%

analysts believe that there is still room for the appreciation of RMB in 2021 from the perspective of fundamentals, monetary policy, interest rate difference between China and foreign countries and other factors

　　 Hit a new high of more than two and a half years

during the new year's Day holiday, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar in the offshore market continued the volatile trend since December 2020. According to the data, as of January 1, 2021, the offshore RMB closed at 6.5050 yuan against the US dollar, down 20 points from the previous closing price

in the fourth quarter of 2020, the forward repurchase risk reserve ratio fell to 0, the counter cyclical factor faded out of the RMB central parity quotation model, and the central bank also lowered the macro Prudential parameter of cross-border financing of financial institutions to 1, The introduction of these new measures will help slow down the appreciation of the RMB. In addition, at the end of 2020, the central bank increased its open market operation, and the RMB money market appeared & ldquo; Small loose & rdquo;, The yield of 10-year Treasury bonds showed an obvious downward trend in the latter ten days after consolidation in the middle and early ten days of December 2020

it is worth noting that at the end of December 2020, the onshore and offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar reached a new high of more than two and a half years. In the morning of December 31, 2020, the offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose to 6.4895 yuan, the highest since June 22, 2018; On the same day, the onshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose to 6.5148 yuan, the highest since June 25, 2018

　　 Appreciation of about 7% in 2020

in 2020, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar changed the depreciation momentum in 2018 and 2019 for two consecutive years, and the rise of the onshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar was close to the level in 2017. On December 31, 2020, the daily closing price of onshore RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.5398 yuan, up 4264 points for the whole year, with an appreciation rate of about 6.71%

in addition, the central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar appreciated by 6.92%, higher than 6.90% in 2007, setting a record high annual appreciation rate after the exchange rate merger reform in 1994

the appreciation rate and range of RMB against the US dollar in 2020 are rare in recent years. Throughout the year, the trend of RMB exchange rate against the US dollar can be roughly divided into two stages. The first stage is from January to may 2020. During this period, affected by many factors such as the external environment, geopolitics, the impact of the epidemic, monetary policy, tight liquidity of the US dollar and so on, it shows great fluctuations, and the overall trend is shock devaluation

from June to December 2020, the RMB began to appreciate. In these seven months, the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar rose by more than 6000 points

at the end of May 2020, the impact of the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy was fermented, and the overflow of US dollar liquidity led to the weakening of US dollar, which directly led to the appreciation of RMB against US dollar. In addition, the domestic epidemic prevention and control took the lead, the fundamentals took the lead in recovering, and the export trade increased significantly. Monetary policy also gradually withdrew from the special state during the epidemic, the market interest rate gradually rebounded to the pre epidemic level, the interest rate gap between China and foreign countries widened to an all-time high, and the attraction of RMB assets to foreign capital increased

　　 There is still room for RMB appreciation

looking forward to 2021, analysts believe that the market rate of RMB appreciation will continue in the first half of the year

Hu Yuexiao, chief Macro Analyst of Shanghai Securities, believes that after the neutral signal released by the policy, the appreciation trend of RMB has not ended, but the rhythm will slow down and increase volatility in a short time in the future. According to the theory of interest rate parity and the changes of international financial situation, the appreciation of RMB exchange rate is far from enough; According to the impact of the epidemic on the economy and the different economic trends between China and the United States after the epidemic, international capital favors RMB assets, and market forces should be in a state of strong appreciation of RMB

based on the internationalization of RMB and the changes in the balance of economic power, Hu Yuexiao believes that the trend of RMB exchange rate is & ldquo; Rise in stability & rdquo; The long-term direction remains unchanged. The latest changes in the epidemic have once again increased the importance of China's economy in the world economic pattern, and the attraction of RMB assets to overseas investors has further increased; In the next 2-3 years, China's economic growth will continue to lead the global economy; China is one of the few major economies in the world to implement normal monetary policy. Based on the changes in the international economic, financial and political environment, according to the market value and historical price of the RMB exchange rate and the development direction of RMB internationalization, the steady and partial rise is the irreversible trend of the RMB exchange rate in the future

according to the OECD forecast, the GDP growth rate of the United States will be 3.2% and that of China will be 8% in 2021